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Dec26 Brazilian fixation analysis
Live Market Data
OY
You
I have 10,000 MT of Brazilian Middling 36 G5 28 GPT min on call Dec 26 at 70 c/lb. Nov/Dec shipment split equally. Should I fix now?
CA
Cotton AI
Based on our price forecast and your mill's risk profile, yes — this is an optimal fixation window for your Nov shipment. Here's the breakdown:
▲ FIX SIGNAL Confidence: 87%
Origin Brazilian M36 G5 28 GPT min
Current Basis 70 c/lb on Dec26
Model Used Gradient Boosted Regression (XGBoost)
Why This Model Best fit for combining fixation time horizon with seasonal market patterns to identify optimal entry points
Price Forecast Dec26 ICE projected to soften 150-200 pts over next 3 weeks
Your Risk Profile Moderate — your past fixations show a pattern of fixing late and missing optimal windows by 50-80 pts
Recommended Fix 5,000 MT (Nov shipment) — fix now at 70 c/lb
Remaining 5,000 MT (Dec shipment) — hold, model forecasts better entry in 10-14 days

Why now: Our model forecasts Dec26 ICE softening over the next 3 weeks, but basis on Brazilian M36 is tightening due to limited nearby availability. Fixing the Nov shipment now locks in a favorable basis before it widens. Your past fixation data shows your mill tends to delay 2-3 weeks past the optimal window — this recommendation corrects for that pattern.

Dec shipment: Hold the remaining 5,000 MT. The model projects a better entry point in 10-14 days as futures decline. We'll alert you when conditions align.

Hedging note: Consider buying Dec26 67-strike puts to protect the Dec shipment while you wait. IV is 18% below seasonal average — puts are cheap.
Buying Recommendation by Origin:
Origin Basis Forecast Signal
Brazilian M36 G5 28GPT 700 Basis tightening BUY
US M36 G5 28GPT 850 Basis widening HOLD
Ivory Coast MANBO 35 650 Stable WATCH
Argentine SLM 34 G5 27GPT 300 Flat HOLD
Cotton AI provides data-driven recommendations. AI can make mistakes — if you're unsure about a recommendation, ask the AI to get it approved by a human data analyst and futures expert at YS Group and Ample Insight.
i.

Always on. Always adapting.

Cotton AI is a live engine that continuously monitors ICE futures, basis movements, USDA reports, weather disruptions, and global supply chain events. When conditions change, your recommendations update instantly — no manual refresh, no waiting for a weekly report.

ii.

Global event intelligence

A flood in Sindh. A hurricane in Texas. A drought in Ivory Coast. Cotton AI detects supply disruptions in real time and instantly recalculates origin recommendations, price forecasts, and hedging strategies before your broker picks up the phone.

iii.

Origin intelligence

Side-by-side comparison of every major cotton origin — basis levels, quality specs, and value scores mapped to your specific yarn requirements.

iv.

Hedging engine

Options and futures strategies tailored to your open positions. Calls, puts, collars — with cost analysis and P&L scenarios before you commit.

v.

Backtested strategies

Every recommendation is validated against five years of historical market outcomes. See exactly what would have happened before you act.

vi.

Your data, your edge

Enterprise clients can train custom models on their own fixation history. The more data you feed, the more precise the recommendations become.